RESEARCH PAPER
Recent U.S. and International Assessment of Baltic Security Developments
| 1 | Libraries and School of Information Studies, Purdue University, United States |
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Bert Chapman
Libraries and School of Information Studies, Purdue University, 504 West State Street, 47907-2058, West Lafayette, United States
Libraries and School of Information Studies, Purdue University, 504 West State Street, 47907-2058, West Lafayette, United States
Submission date: 2019-06-21
Final revision date: 2019-09-09
Acceptance date: 2019-09-10
Online publication date: 2019-09-19
Publication date: 2019-09-30
Security and Defence Quarterly 2019;26(4):3–33
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Objectives:
Examining analysis of Baltic security developments from U.S. government and military resources, scholarly journal articles, and multinational public policy research institute assessments.
Methods:
Analyzing content and rhetoric within these resources to learn how those producing these materials view Baltic security developments and their viewpoints on how the U.S. and its allies should respond to these developments focusing on increasing Russian regional assertiveness.
Results:
Provides interpretations of Baltic security developments, Russian Baltic policy, and U.S. and NATO responses ot these developments in materials produced by U.S. civilian and military policymakers and multinational scholarly analysis. Includes performance assessments of U.S. programs including the European Deterrence Initiative and potential Russian military activity in the Baltics as reflected in varying reports by the U.S. Government, military, and multinational public policy research institutions.
Conclusions:
Recommends U.S. and NATO countries recognize a new Cold War exists with a revisionist Russia. Advocates continuing NATO military exercise, upgrading civilian and military infrastructure protection, and enhancing U.S. and allied preparedness. Urges ongoing and candid dialogue between NATO and Russia to keep this situation from erupting into war. Insists the U.S. and its allies adroitly respond to Russian attempts to influence and manipulate public opinion toward Moscow. Expresses concern that U.S. partisan division over 2016 Russian interference in U.S. presidential election makes achieving greater Baltic policy cohesion difficult. Advocates warning Russia of devastating consequences of attempts to militarily invade or subvert Baltic countries.
Examining analysis of Baltic security developments from U.S. government and military resources, scholarly journal articles, and multinational public policy research institute assessments.
Methods:
Analyzing content and rhetoric within these resources to learn how those producing these materials view Baltic security developments and their viewpoints on how the U.S. and its allies should respond to these developments focusing on increasing Russian regional assertiveness.
Results:
Provides interpretations of Baltic security developments, Russian Baltic policy, and U.S. and NATO responses ot these developments in materials produced by U.S. civilian and military policymakers and multinational scholarly analysis. Includes performance assessments of U.S. programs including the European Deterrence Initiative and potential Russian military activity in the Baltics as reflected in varying reports by the U.S. Government, military, and multinational public policy research institutions.
Conclusions:
Recommends U.S. and NATO countries recognize a new Cold War exists with a revisionist Russia. Advocates continuing NATO military exercise, upgrading civilian and military infrastructure protection, and enhancing U.S. and allied preparedness. Urges ongoing and candid dialogue between NATO and Russia to keep this situation from erupting into war. Insists the U.S. and its allies adroitly respond to Russian attempts to influence and manipulate public opinion toward Moscow. Expresses concern that U.S. partisan division over 2016 Russian interference in U.S. presidential election makes achieving greater Baltic policy cohesion difficult. Advocates warning Russia of devastating consequences of attempts to militarily invade or subvert Baltic countries.
REFERENCES (85)
1.
Ǎtland, K., 2016. North European Security After the Ukraine Conflict. Defense & Security Analysis, 32 (2), 163-176. https://doi.org/10.1080/147517....
2.
Béraud-Sudreau, L. and Giegerich, B., 2018. NATO Defence Spending and European Threat Perceptions. Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 60 (4), 53-74; https://www.tandfonline.com/do....
3.
Bruns, S., 2019. From Show of Force to Naval Presence and Back Again: The U.S. Navy in the.
4.
Baltic, 1982-2017. Defense & Security Analysis, 35 (2), 117-132. https://doi.org/10.1080/147517....
5.
Chapman, B., 2016. U.S. Congressional Committee Hearings on Korea During the 113th Congress 2013-2014: Overseeing Multifaceted Aspects of Washington’s Peninsular Interests. The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis [online]. 28 (1), 85-86. Available from: https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/li... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
6.
Hooker, Jr., R., D., ed., 2016, Charting a Course: Strategic Choices for a New Administration. Washington: National Defense University Press. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo76....
7.
Clark, W., Luik, J., Ramms, E. and Shirreff, R., 2016. Closing NATO’s Baltic Gap [online]. International Centre for Defence and Security, Tallinn. Available from: https://icds.ee/wpcontent/uplo... [Accessed 21 May 2019].
8.
Clem, R.S., 2016. Geopolitics and Planning for a High End Fight: NATO and the Baltic Region. Air and Space Power Journal [online]. 30(1), 74-86. Available from: http://www.airuniversity.af.mi... [Accessed 17 May 2019].
9.
Congressional Record, 2015. 161 (89)(June 4): p. S3766 [online]. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
10.
Congressional Record, 2017. 163 (54)(March 28): H2468 [online]. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed3 May 2019].
11.
Congressional Record, 2017. 163(86)(May 18): E669 [online]. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed3 May 2019].
12.
Council of the Baltic Sea States, 2017 [online]. CBSS, Stockholm. Available from: http://www.cbss.org/council/; [Accessed 2 May 2019].
13.
Deni, J.R., 2019. Is NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence Fit for Purpose? Orbis, 63 (1), 92-103. https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.....
14.
Emmott, R., and Ali, I., 2018. U.S. Pushes NATO to Read More Forces to Deter Russian Threat [online]. Reuters. Available from: https://www.reuters.com/articl...; [Accessed 6 August 2019].
15.
Frost, R.L., 2000. The Northern Wars: War, State, and Society in Northeastern Europe, 1558-1721. London: Routledge.
16.
Geiger, J., 2017. eFP Battle Group Poland Crosses the Suwalki Gap into Lithuania, Washington: U.S. Army. Available from: https://www.army.mil/article/1... [Accessed 20 May 2019].
17.
Giguère, S.,ed., Baltic Partnerships: Integration, Growth and Local Governance in the Baltic Sea Region. 2007, Paris: OECD.
18.
Goldberg, A.J., 2017. Baltic Flashpoint: Collective Defense for the Twenty-First Century. In Slater, M.R., Purcell, M., and Del Gaudio, A.M., eds. Considering Russia: Emergence of a New Peer Competitor. Quantico: Marine Corps University Press. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo83... [Accessed 20 May 2019].
19.
Götz, E., 2019. Enemy at the Gates: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation of Russia’s Baltic Policy. Foreign Policy Analysis, 15 (1), 99-117. https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/or....
20.
H.R. 2820, 115th Congress, 1st Session. 2017, Fight Russian Corruption Act. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten...; History of Bills, 163. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 16 May 2019].
21.
Hamilton, R.E., 2019. Russia’s Attempts to Undermine Democracy in the West: Effects and Causes. Orbis, 63 (3), 334-348 doi:10.1016/j.orbis.2019.05.009.
22.
Herzog, S., 2011. Revisiting the Estonian Cyber Attacks: Digital Threats and Multinational Responses. Journal of Strategic Security, 4 (2), 49-60. Available from: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu... [Accessed 11 June 2019].
23.
Joint Statement: A Declaration to Celebrate A 100 Years of Independence of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania and Renewed Partnership, 2018 [online]. Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 18 June 2019].
24.
Joint Statement of the United States-Nordic Leaders Summit, 2016 [online]. Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
25.
Kemper, C., Helgestad, J., Colvin, N, and Cox, S., 2018. Design to Execution Into the Suwalki Gap [online]. Military Review. Available from: http://www.armyupress.army.mil... [Accessed 20 May 2019].
26.
Kragh, M and Åsberg, S., 2017. Russia’s Strategy for Influence Through Public Diplomacy and Active Measures: The Swedish Case. Journal of Strategic Studies, 40 (6), 777-816. http://doi.org/10.1080/0140239....
27.
Kuhn, U., 2018. Preventing Escalation in the Baltics: A NATO Playbook. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC. Available from: https://carnegieendowment.org/... [Accessed 2 May 2019].
28.
Kyle, J., 2019. Contextualizing Russia and the Baltic Sea States. Orbis, 63 (1), 104-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbi....
29.
Lanoszka, A., 2018. The Belarus Factor in European Security. Parameters, 47(4), 75-84. Available from: https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu... [Accessed 20 May 2019].
30.
Lanoszka, A. and Hunzecker, M.A., 2016. Confronting the Anti-Access/Area Denial and Precision Strike Challenge in the Baltic Region. The RUSI Journal, 161 (5), 12-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/030718....
31.
Lundqvist, S. and Weiden, J.J., 2015. The New U.S. Maritime Strategy: Implications for the Baltic Sea Region. The RUSI Journal, 160 (5), 42-48; https://doi.org/10.1080/030718....
32.
McCabe, T.R., 2016. The Russian Perception of the NATO Aerospace Fall Threat: Could It Lead to Preemption? Air and Space Power Journal, 30(3), 70-71. Available from: http://www.airuniversity.af.mi... [Accessed 17 May 2019].
33.
McGuiness, D., 2017. How a Cyber Attack Transformed Estonia [online]. BBC News. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/396554... [Accessed 2 May 2019].
34.
McNamara, E. M., 2017. Between Trump’s America and Putin’s Russia: Nordic-Baltic Security Relations Amid Transatlantic Drift. Irish Studies in International Affairs, 28 (2), 73-98; DOI:10.3318/isia.2017.28.2.
35.
Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation, 2015. [online]. Russian Maritime Studies Institute. Available from: https://dnnlgwick.blob.core.wi.... pdf?sr=b&si=DNNFileManagerPolicy&sig=fqZgUUVRVRrKmSFNMOj%2FNaRNawUoRdhdvpFJj7%2FpAkM%3D [Accessed 21 May 2019].
36.
Metrick, A. and Hicks, K.J., 2018. Contested Seas: Maritime Domain Awareness in Northern Europe [online]. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Available from: https://csisprod.s3.amazonaws.... [Accessed May 21, 2019].
37.
Milevski, L., 2018. The West’s East: Contemporary Baltic Defense in Strategic Perspective. New York : Oxford University Press.
39.
Mölder, H., 2011. The Cooperative Security Dilemma in the Baltic Sea Region. Journal of Baltic Studies, 42 (2), 143-168. https://doi.org/10.1080/016297....
40.
Muṅoz, C., 2019. NATO Tackles Growing Russia, China Threat With New Military Strategy [online]. Washington Times. Available from: https://www.washingtontimes.co...; [Accessed 6 August 2019].
41.
North, M.N., and Kronenberg, K., 2016. The Baltic: A History. Cambridge : Harvard University Press.
42.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2018. NATO Response Force/Very High Readiness Task Force [online]. NATO. Available from: https://shape.nato.int/nato-re... [Accessed 6 August 2019].
43.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2019a. Enhanced Forward Presence. NATO. Available from https://shape.nato.int/efp [Accessed 6 August 2019].
44.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2019b. NATO Air Policing [online]. NATO. Available from: https://ac.nato.int/page593192... [Accessed 6 August 2019].
45.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. What is NATO? 2017 [online]. NATO. Available from: https://www.nato.int/nato_stat... [Accessed 2 May 2019].
46.
Parafianowicz, R., 2017. The Military-Geographical Significance of the Suwałki Gap. Security and Defence Quarterly, 20(4), 3-20; https://doi.org/10.5604/01.300... [Accessed 21 May 2019].
47.
Payne, K. B., 2017. Thinking Anew About U.S. Nuclear Policy Toward Russia. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 11 (2), 17, 19-20. Available from: http://www.airuniversity.af.mi... [Accessed 20 May 2019].
48.
President Donald Trump, 2019. Remarks by President Trump and President Duda of the Republic of Poland Before Bilateral Meeting. The White House, Washington, DC [online]. Available from: https://www.whitehouse.gov/bri... [Acessed 18 June 2019].
49.
The President’s News Conference with President Toomas Hendrik Ilves of Estonia in Tallinn, Estonia, 2014 [online]. Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 2 May 2019].
50.
Mastriano, D., 2017. Project 1721: A U.S. Army War College Assessment on Russian Strategy in Eastern Europe and Recommendations on How to Leverage Landpower to Maintain the Peace. Carlisle : United States Army War College Press. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo81... [Accessed 20 May 2019].
51.
Public Law 113-291, Carl Levin and Howard P. Buck McKeon National Defense Authorization Act For Fiscal Year 2015 (2014). 128 U.S. Statutes at Large 3618. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 16 May 2019].
52.
Public Law 115-91, National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018. 2017. 131 U.S. Statutes at Large 1283. Available from: https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/... [Accessed 17 May 2019].
53.
Remarks Following a Meeting With President Sauli Niinistὂ of Finland, Prime Minister Erna Solberg of Norway, Prime Minister Stefan Lὂfven of Sweden, Prime Minister Laws Løkke Rasmussen of Denmark, and Prime Minister Sigurour Ingi Jóhansson of Iceland. 2016 [online]. Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 2 May 2019].
54.
Remarks in Warsaw, Poland, 2017 [online]. Daily Compilation of Presidential Documents. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
55.
Ringsmose, J., and Rynning S., 2017. Now for the Hard Part: NATO’s Strategic Adaptation to Russia. Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 59 (3), 129-146. https://doi.org/10.1080/003963....
56.
S. Res. 501: Expressing the Sense of the Senate on Russian Military Aggression. 114th Congress, 2nd Session. 2016 [online]. Available from: https://www.govinfo.gov/conten... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
57.
Scheer, B., 2019. Trump, NATO, and the Future of Europe’s Defense. The RUSI Journal, 164 (1), 10-17 https://www.tandfonline.com/do....
58.
Sencerman, Ö., 2018. Russian Diaspora as a Means of Russian Foreign Policy. Military Review, 98 (2), 41-49. Available from: http://www.armyupress.army.mil... [Accessed 20 May 2019].
59.
Sense of the Faculty: Russia Futures Project Summary Report, 2016 [online]. Russian Maritime Studies Institute. Available from: https://dnnlgwick.blob.core.wi...; [Accessed 21 May 2019].
60.
Shlapak, D., and Johnson, M., W., 2016. Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics. Rand Corporation, Santa Monica. Available from: https://www.rand.org/pubs/rese... [Accessed 21 May , 2019].
61.
Smith, J., and Hendrix, J., 2016. Assured Resolve: Testing Possible Challenges to Baltic Security [online]. Center for a New American Security. Available from: https://s3.amazonaws.com/files... [Accessed 21 May 2019].
62.
Stravers, A.J., 2018. Partisan Conflict Over Grand Strategy in Eastern Europe, 2014-2017. Orbis, 62 (4), 541-556 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbi....
63.
Thieme, D., 2018. The Baltic, Poland, and President Trump’s Warsaw Declaration. Naval War College Review [online], 71 (2), 149-153. Available from: http://digital-commons.usnwc.e...; [Accessed 3 May 2019].
64.
Thornton, R. and Karagiannis, M., 2016. The Russian Threat to the Baltic States: The Problems of Shaping Local Defense Mechanisms. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 29 (3), 331-351 https://doi.org/10.1080/135180....
65.
Tuohy, E., Jermalavičius, T., and Bulakh, A., 2018. The Geopolitics of Power Grids: Political and Security Aspects of Baltic Electricity Synchronization. International Centre for Defence and Security, Tallinn. Available from: https://uploads.icds.ee/ICDS_R... [Accessed 21 May 2019).
66.
U.S. Chief of Naval Operations, 2018. CNO Announces Establishment of U.S. 2nd Fleet CNO [online]. Available from: http://www.navy.mil/submit/dis... [Accessed 21 May 2019].
67.
U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2017 [online]. Baltic Security After the Warsaw-NATO Summit. GPO. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo77... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
68.
U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2016. NATO’s Warsaw Summit and the Future of European Security. GPO. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo71... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
69.
U.S. Congress. House Committee on Armed Services, 2017. Military Assessment of Russian Activities and Security Challenges in Europe. GPO. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo87... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
70.
U.S. Congress. House Committee on Armed Services. Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces, 2017 [online]. U.S. Ground Force Capability and Modernization Challenges in Eastern Europe. GPO. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo82... {Accessed 3 May, 2019].
71.
U.S. Congress. House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats, 2017 [online]. U.S. Policy Toward the Baltic States. GPO. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo80... [Accessed 2 May 2019].
72.
U.S. Congress. Senate Committee on Armed Services, 2017 [online]. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia, and European Security. GPO. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo87... [Accessed 3 May 2019].
73.
U.S. Congress. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 2017. Russian Intervention in European Elections [online]. GPO. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo86... [Accessed 16 May 2019].
74.
U.S. Department of Defense, 2018. Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America [online]. DOD. Available from: https://www.defense.gov/Portal... [Accessed 17 May 2019].
75.
U.S. Department of Defense. Office of Inspector General, 2017. Evaluation of the European Reassurance Initiative [online]. Available from: https://media.defense.gov/2017... [Accessed 16 May 2019].
76.
U.S. Department of Defense. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), 2018 [online]. European Deterrence Initiative: Department of Defense Budget Fiscal Year (FY) 2019) [online]. DOD Comptroller. Available from: http://comptroller.defense.gov... [Accessed 17 May 2019].
77.
U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, 1973. Limits in the Seas: Continental Shelf and Territorial Boundaries Poland-Soviet Union [online]. U.S. Department of State. Available from: https://2009-2017.state.gov/do...; [Accessed 2 May 2019].
78.
U.S. European Command, 2017, 2018 European Reassurance Initiative (ERI) Fact Sheet [online]. U.S. European Command Public Affairs Office. Available from: https://www.eucom.mil/media-li... [Accessed 16 May 2019].
79.
U.S. European Command, 2019. FY 2020 European Reassurance Initiative (ERI) Fact Sheet [online]. U.S. European Command Public Affairs Office. Available from: https://www.eucom.mil/CustomSe... [Accessed 21 May 2019].
80.
U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2018. Defense Budget: Obligations of Overseas Contingency Operations Funding for Operation and Maintenance Base Requirements [online]. GAO. Available from: https://www.gao.gov/assets/690... [Accessed 16 May 2019].
81.
U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2017. European Reassurance Initiative: DOD Needs to Prioritize Posture Initiatives and Plan for and Report Their Future Costs [online]. GAO. Available from: https://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo8... [Accessed 16 May 2019].
82.
U.S. Navy Ship Encounters Aggressive Russian Aircraft in Baltic Sea, 2016 [online]. U.S. Navy. Available from: http://www.navy.mil/submit/dis... [Accessed 2 May 2019].
83.
U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, 2015. The Russian Navy: A Historic Transition [online]. Office of Naval Intelligence. Available from: http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo64... [Accessed 21 May 2019].
84.
U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence, 2018. Russian Navy Major Forces by Fleet (Continue) [online]. Available from: http://www.oni.navy.mil/Portal... inue_.jpg?ver=2015-12-14-082027-470 [Accessed 21 May 2019].
85.
Wieslander, A., 2019. What Makes an Ally?: Sweden and Finland as NATO’s Closest Partners. Journal of Transatlantic Studies, 17 (2), 94-122; https://doi.org/10.1057/s42738....
