THE BALKANS AND NON-MILITARY SECURITY THREATS – QUALITY COMPARATIVE ANALYSES OF RESILIENCE CAPABILITIES REGARDING HYBRID THREATS
 
More details
Hide details
1
University of Defense, Republic of Serbia
 
Security and Defence Quarterly 2018;22(5):20–45
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
The contemporary security environment indicates non-conventional, asymmetric and hybrid security threats as potentially the most accurate threats to global and regional security. Conflict risks in the regional frame strongly depend on strategically aimed non-military, but hybrid acts. The great powers mostly attempt to achieve their own interests’ goals in fulfi llment of self-orientated strategic dominance. The Balkan region is a crossroads of strongly exposed interest spheres of regional as well as global powers. The article aims to determine areas of infl uence in the Balkan States that could become targets of predominantly non-military but hybrid infl uences. Multi-Value Quality Comparative Analyses (mvQCA) of state power, stability and resilience capacities were used in the research. The methodology used was based on the approach with multi-valued sets of variables and conditions. A theoretical framework was based on contemporary theories of state power and hybrid warfare concept. Used databases were brought together from generated open source databases of approved international academic or think-tank organisations. Based on a hypothesis regarding hybrid security threats, a theoretical framework of understanding of power and analysing a wide spectra of databases, the article aims to contribute a rational and objective understanding of two main indicators: the potential to become a target and the resilience capacities of countries in the face of hybrid security threats. Its findings indicate that most countries in the Balkan region are potentially under unarmed influences and have very low resilience capabilities against possible hybrid infl uences. The conclusions reached help to clarify that the Balkan States are vulnerable to hybrid security threats.
 
REFERENCES (70)
1.
Alexander, M., 2008. Democratization and Hybrid Regimes: Comparative Evidencefrom Southeast Europe. East European Politics & Societies, 22 (4), 928–954. [online]Availablefrom:http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... 6 Feb 2018].
 
2.
Aron, R., 2003. Peace & war: a theory of international relations. New Brunswick NewJersey: Transaction Publishers.
 
3.
Attila Hoare, M., 2010. Bosnia-Hercegovina and International Justice: Past Failures and FutureSolutions. East European Politics & Societies, 24 (2), 191–205. [online] Available from:http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
4.
Avdagic, S., 2010. When Are Concerted Reforms Feasible? Explaining the Emergenceof Social Pacts in Western Europe. Comparative Political Studies, 43 (5), 628–657.[online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... 25 Jan 2018].
 
5.
Aymaliev, I. M., 2017. Corporate Motivations for Donating to the Police in Bulgaria. EastEuropean Politics and Societies. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
6.
Baldwin, D. A., 1979. Power analysis and world politics: New trends versus old tendencies. World politics, 31(2).
 
7.
Baumgartner, M. and Th iem, A., 2017. Model Ambiguities in Confi gurational ComparativeResearch. Sociological Methods & Research, 46 (4), 954–987. [online] Available from:http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
8.
Beck, M., 2006. Th e Concept of Regional Power - Th e Middle East as a Devian Case. InGerman Institute of Global and Area Studies. Hamburg.
 
9.
Bell, R. G., Filatotchev, I. and Aguilera, R. V., 2014. Corporate Governance and Investors’Perceptions of Foreign IPO Value: An Institutional Perspective. Academy ofManagement Journal, 57(1), pp. 301–320. [online] Available from: http://journals. aom.org/doi/10.5465/amj.2011.0... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
10.
Berlin, M. S., 2016. Why (not) arrest? Th ird-party state compliance and noncompliancewith international criminal tribunals. Journal of Human Rights, 15 (4), 509–532.[online] Available from: https://www.tandfonline.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
11.
Bertelsmann, BTI - Bertelsmann Transformation Index. BTI - Bertelsmann TransformationIndex. [online] Available from: https://www.bti-project.org/en... [Accessed 25Jan 2018].
 
12.
Betz, J. and Taylor, I., 2007. Th e Rise of (new) regional powers in Asia, Africa, LatinAmerica–contribution to regional and world peace or protracted confl icts. Workshoppresented at the European Consortium for Political Research Joint Sessions.
 
13.
Binder, M., 2015. Paths to intervention: What explains the UN’s selective response tohumanitarian crises? Journal of Peace Research, 52 (6), 712–726. [online] Available from:http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
14.
Bretthauer, J. M., 2015. Conditions for Peace and Confl ict. Journal of Confl ict Resolution,59(4), pp. 593–616. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
15.
Cebrowski, A. and Garstka, J., 1998. Network-centric warfare: Its origin and future. USNaval Institute Proceedings.
 
16.
Center for Systemic Peace, MEPV - Major Episodes of Political Violence Eff ectiveness.[online] Available from: http://www.systemicpeace.org/i... [Accessed25 Jan 2018].
 
17.
Chivvis, C.S., 2017. Understanding Russian “Hybrid Warfare” And What Can Be DoneAbout it. RAND Cooperation, pp. 1–12. [online] Available from: http://www.rand. org/pubs/testimonies/CT468.html [Accessed 31 Jan 2018].
 
18.
Christmann, A. and Danaci, D., 2012. Direct Democracy and Minority Rights: Direct and IndirectEff ects on Religious Minorities in Switzerland. Politics and Religion, 5 (01), 133–160.
 
19.
Cronquist, L. and Berg-Schlosser, D., 2009. Multi-Values QCA (mvQCA). In B. Rihouxand C. Ragin, (eds) Confi gurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative ComparativeAnalysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. SAGE Publications, pp. 69–85.
 
20.
Devers, K. J. et al., 2013. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to Study Patient-Centered Medical Homes. [online] Available from: https://www.urban.org/sites/de... les/publication/24261/412969-Using-Qualitative-Comparative-Analysis-QCA-to-Study-Patient-Centered-Medical-Homes.PDF [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
21.
Dimitrijevic, I. &Parausuc, A., 2017. Katalogbazapodatakazaistraživanja u oblastibezbednosti,Belgrade: Univerzitet u Beogradu – FakultetbezbednostiCentarzaprimenjenubezbednostFakultetabezbednosti.
 
22.
Dixon, M., Roscigno, V. and Hodson, R., 2004. Unions, Solidarity, and Striking. SOCIALFORCES, 83(1).
 
23.
Ekiert, G., Kubik, J. and Vachudova, M. A., 2007. Democracy in the Post-CommunistWorld: An Unending Quest? East European Politics & Societies, 21 (1), 7–30.[online] Available from: http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... 25 Jan 2018].
 
24.
Eric Rosenbach and Aki J. Peritz, 2009. Covert Action. BelferCenter for Science andInternational Aff airs. [online] Available from: https://www.belfercenter.org/p... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
25.
Fischer, M., 2014. Coalition Structures and Policy Change in a Consensus Democracy. Policy Studies Journal, 42 (3), 344–366. [online] Available from: http://doi.wiley. com/10.1111/psj.12064 [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
26.
Freedom House, COUCROS – Countries at the Crossroads. [online] Available from:https://freedomhouse.org/ [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
27.
Freedom House, WRPF - Freedom of the Press Freedom House. [online] Available from:https://freedomhouse.org/repor... [Accessed 25 Jan2018].
 
28.
Gavranov, V. and Stojkovič, M., 1972. Teroijskoshvatanje sile: sila u međunarodnimodnosima. Belgrade: SavremenaAdministracija.
 
29.
Haesebrouck, T., 2017. NATO Burden Sharing in Libya. Journal of Confl ict Resolution,61 (10), 2235–2261. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
30.
Hart, B.L., 1954. Strategy the indirect approach., London: Faber and Faber.
 
31.
Joireman, S.F., 2016. External Conditionalities and Institutional Change. East EuropeanPolitics and Societies, 30 (2), 315–331. [online] Available from: http://journals. sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/088832... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
32.
Kofman, M. and McDermott, R., 2015. No Return to Cold War in Russia’s New MilitaryDoctrine. Eurasia Review. [online] Available from: https://www.eurasiareview. com/03022015-no-return-cold-war-russias-new-military-doctrine-analysis/[Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
33.
Komar, O. and Živković, S., 2016. Montenegro: A democracy without alternations. EastEuropean Politics and Societies, 30 (4), 785–804. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
34.
Korybko, A., 2016. Hybrid Wars: Breaking the Balkans. Global Research - Centre forResearch on Globalization. [online] Available from: https://www.globalresearch.ca/... [Accessed 31 Jan 2018].
 
35.
Korybko, A., 2015. Hybrid Wars: Th e Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change, Th ePeople’s Friendship University of Russia. [online] Available from: http://newcoldwar.org/wp-conte... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
36.
Kulski, W., 1968. International policies in a revolutionary age. 2nd rev. (ed.), New York:Lippincott.
 
37.
Liang, Q. and Xiangsui, W., 1999. Unrestricted Warfare. Beijing: PLA Literature and ArtsPublishing House Arts.
 
38.
Lind, W.S. et al., 1989. Th e Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation. MarineCorps Gazette, October, pp. 22–26.
 
39.
Lončar, J., 2016. Electoral Accountability and Substantive Representation of NationalMinorities: Th e Case of Serbia. East European Politics and Societies, 30(4), pp. 703–724. [online] Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/do... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
40.
Mann, S., 1992. Chaos Th eory and Strategic Th ought., Ft. Belvoir: Defense TechnicalInformation Center.
 
41.
McCulloh, T. and Johnson, R., 2013. Hybrid warfare. JSOU Report 13-4. [online] Availablefrom: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citat....
 
42.
Messner, J., 1960. Mutiny – the Name of the Th ird World War (Мятеж —имятретьейвсемирной) in: Е.Э. Месснер, Хочешьмира,победимятежевойну!,Mockвa 2005, pp 101-175.
 
43.
Messner, J., 1971. Mutinywar (Мятежевойна) In Е.Э. Месснер, Хочешьмира,победимятежевойну!, Mockвa 2005, pp 392-476.
 
44.
Mišović, S. and Kovač, M., 2006. Sistemiodbrane. Belgrade.
 
45.
Mitrovic, M., 2017. Hybrid Security Th reats and Contemporary Approach to NationalSecurity. Th ematic Conference Proceedings of International Signifi cance, InternationalConference ‘Archibald Reiss Days’, 1. [online] Available from: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
46.
Nazemroaya, M. D., 2014. Iraq and Syria are Burning, “Constructive Chaos” and America’sBroader Strategy to Conquer Eurasia. GlobalResearch.ca. [online] Available from:https://www.globalresearch.ca/... [Accessed 18 Feb 2018].
 
47.
Nye, J. S., 2004. Soft power: Th e means to success in world politics. New York: PublicAff airs.
 
48.
Nye, J. S., 1990. Soft power. Foreign policy, Autumn.
 
49.
Nye, J. S., 2011. Th e Future of Power. New York: Public Aff airs.
 
50.
Obradovic-Wochnik, J. and Wochnik, A., 2014. Invalid Ballots and the "Crisis ofRepresentative Democracy: Re-inventing Protest at the 2012 Serbian Elections. EastEuropean Politics & Societies, 28 (4), 808–835.
 
51.
Odak, S. and Benčić, A., 2016. Jasenovac—A Past Th at Does Not Pass: Th e Presence ofJasenovac in Croatian and Serbian Collective Memory of Confl ict. East EuropeanPolitics and Societies, 30 (4), 805–829.
 
52.
Protsyk, O. and Sachariew, K., 2012. Recruitment and Representation of Ethnic Minoritiesunder Proportional Representation: Evidence from Bulgaria. East European Politics &Societies, 26(2), 313–339. [online] Available from: http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... [Accessed 6 Feb 2018].
 
53.
Ragin, C., 2000. Fuzzy-set social science. University of Chicago Press.
 
54.
Ragin, C., 2009. Qualitative Comparative Analyses Using Fuzzy Sets (fsQCA). In B. Rihouxand C. Ragin, (eds) Confi gurational Comparative Methods: Qualitative ComparativeAnalysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. SAGE Publications, pp. 87–121. [online]Available from: http://methods.sagepub.com/boo... gurational-comparative-methods [Accessed 6 Feb 2018].
 
55.
Ragin, C., 2009. Redesigning social inquiry: Fuzzy sets and beyond. University of ChicagoPress.
 
56.
Ragin, C., Mayer, S. and KA, D., 1984. Assessing discrimination: A Boolean approach. American Sociological Review. [online] Available from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
57.
Renz, B. and Smith, H., 2016. Russia and Hybrid warfare - going beyond the label. Aleksanteri Papers, 1.
 
58.
Rihoux, B. and De Meur, G., 2009. Crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA). In B. Rihoux and C. Ragin (eds) Confi gurational Comparative Methods: QualitativeComparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. SAGE Publications, pp. 33–68.[online] Available from: http://methods.sagepub.com/boo... gurational-comparative-methods [Accessed 6 Feb 2018].
 
59.
Rihoux, B. and Ragin, C., 2009. Confi gurational Comparative Methods: QualitativeComparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Techniques. London: Sage.
 
60.
Savin, L., 2011. Network centric strategies in the Arab spring. Open Revolt! [online]Available from: https://openrevolt.info/2011/1... 28 Jan 2018].
 
61.
Shashkov, S., 2011. Th e theory of ‘manageable chaos’ put into practice. StrategicCulture Foundation. [online] Available from: https://www.strategic-culture. org/news/2011/03/01/the-theory-of-manageable-chaos-put-into-practice.html[Accessed 6 Feb 2018].
 
62.
Slipchenko, V., 1999. Voinabudushchego (War of the Future). Moscow.
 
63.
Spirova, M. and Stefanova, B., 2012. Th e European Dimension of Minority PoliticalRepresentation: Bulgaria and Romania Compared. East European Politics & Societies,26 (1), 75–92. [online] Available from: http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
64.
Subotic, J., 2010. Explaining Diffi cult States: Th e Problems of Europeanization in Serbia. East European Politics & Societies, 24 (4), 595–616. [online] Available from: http://eep.sagepub.com/cgi/doi... [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
65.
Th e Correlates of War Project, Correlates of War Project Website. [online] Available from:http://correlatesofwar.org/ [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
66.
Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index. CPI - Corruption PerceptionsIndex. [online] Available from: http://cpi.transparency.org [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
67.
Verweij, S. et al., 2013. What Makes Governance Networks Work? A Fuzzy Set QualitativeComparative Analysis Of 14 Dutch Spatial Planning Projects. Public Administration,91(4), 1035–1055.
 
68.
Vis, B., 2011. Under which conditions does spending on active labor market policiesincrease? An fsQCA analysis of 53 governments between 1985 and 2003. EuropeanPolitical Science Review, 3(02), 229–252.
 
69.
Watson, J., Chapter 3: Attack by Stratagem. In Sun Tzu’s Art of War. [online] Availablefrom: http://suntzusaid.com/book/3 [Accessed 25 Jan 2018].
 
70.
Wright, R. A. and Boudet, H. S., 2012. To Act or Not to Act: Context, Capability, andCommunity Response to Environmental Risk. American Journal of Sociology, 118 (3),728–777.
 
eISSN:2544-994X
ISSN:2300-8741