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War Studies University
Security and Defence Quarterly 2017;14(1):21–34
The article discusses security within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation with respect to threats which may appear in its near and more distant surroundings. The following military threats are discussed: military conflicts, militarization of the Arctic, demonstration of Russian military power, use of weapons of mass destruction, cyber attack, terrorism and militarisation of Space. Other mentioned dangers are: natural and social ones including migration, competition among state and non-state entities as well as the phenomenon of fallen cities and states.
According to the definition “threats are situations where there is a probability of a dangerous event for the surroundings. This is an indirect or direct destructive action towards the object”, M. Huzarski, AON, Warsaw 2009, p. 12.
Since 26th March, Russia concentrated in the Western Military District along the border with Ukraine considerable land military forces of 30 -40 thousand soldiers including armoured and artillery troops pretending to organise a military exercise. A similar sized army was waiting inside the country ready to be transferred to the border between Russia and Ukraine.
M. Wrzosek, Nowe i stare zagadnienia Sojuszu Pólnocnoatlantyckiego, Zeszyty naukowe AON nr 2/2013, p. 33.
The civil war in Syria was inspired by the success of the Arab Spring, including the fall of the government of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, and was started as a result of the discontent of Syrian society with the form of government of the Baas Party, since 2000 with President Bashar al-Assad at its head. The impulse for its break-out was the self-immolation of a Syrian citizen, Hasan Ali Akli, in January 2011 as a sign of protest against lack of state reform. This act resulted in the outbreak of social protest striving to overthrow the existing government. Following that, a series of protests started which soon led to a regular fight with the army faithful to Bashar al-Assad.
D.C. Lovelace, Terrorism: Commentary on security documents volume 146: Russia’s resurgence, Oxford 2017.
This concept includes the ease of masking one`s identity, commitment, anonymity on the internet, and identity theft person, institution, and organisation).
The definition of cyberspace refers to imagined milieu where digital information is made accessible by computer networks. Source: National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations – NMS-CO Joint Chiefs of Staff, Washington 2006, p. 5.
B. Grenda, Cyber-bezpieczeństwo operacji powietrznych NATO, in R. Czulda, R. Łoś, J. Reginia-Zacharski (eds), NATO wobec wyzwań współczesnego świata, Warsaw 2013.
The greatest fear may be caused by the situation in Iran where large amounts of chemical weapons have been gathered for a long time and now, through various investments and staff training in foreign centres, full independence in the production of nuclear fuel is being sought. Other dangerous tendencies have also appeared in India and Pakistan, competing for decades for primacy in the region and successfully developing programmes of all three kinds of mass destruction weapons and their carriers.
J.J. Klein, Space warfare: Strategy, principles and policy, London 2006.
Considerable fall of value of securities causing financial crisis, breakdown on stock markets, financial speculation, and economic crisis.
E. Karmon, Weaponry, doctrine and operational consequences, in M. Edmonds (ed.), Future NATO Security, Amsterdam 2004.
TATP — Improvised Explosive. Overview, Tel Awiw 1998, p. 2.
Large cities and mega cities defined as metropolises with over 10 m inhabitants.
Rise of non-governed structures, devoid of legal regulations etc.
The territory not regulated by any rules – may rise on crisis areas or war areas e.g. fallen cities.
If we leave out natural resources on the areas belonging now to state entities we may indicate not discovered or legally yet disallowed to exploit areas of oceans and seas as well as the Arctic and the Antarctic. An example of many such actions is a struggle for the Arctic. The Russian federation increased the number of its troops in the polar circle and Canada demanded for their own the North Pole. The reason is the enormous deposits of natural resources (gas, petrolium and rare metals) under the thick ice cap.